Week 3 of the NFL season is here and that means we have even more data points to try and make some trades. The running back position has been pretty disappointing overall this year, but I expect we will see it bounce back. People who went wide receiver heavy are probably riding that 2-0 high.
Let’s keep moving and make some trades!
Note 1: the trends are versus the Week 1 values. So, they will be a little bigger than the typical week-to-week movement
Note 2: I will be back Week 5 with updated trade values!
Reddit Adjusted Trade Value Charts with a twist
Under the moniker PeakedInHighSkool, I have been producing trade value charts over on Reddit and my Patreon for several years now, and I am excited to be collaborating with the awesome team here at The Athletic to make an exclusive weekly edition.
I started the process to model fantasy football trade values in 2017 based on some negative complaints on Reddit (shocking, I know). Linear positional ranks seemed to be solid, but the relationships between positions had some bias, particularly at the top and the bottom of traditional charts. So I went into the arduous task of trying to correct these observed issues using crowd-sourced data from Reddit. In case you aren’t familiar with Reddit, there is a weekly trade thread where users can post individual players, and other users will respond with your momma jokes “reasonable” trades they have seen or think might get accepted. There are often hundreds or thousands of responses of varying quality.
What I did (and still do) was to go through and look for cross-over points between positions. Where people do a one-for-one trade of a running back for a wide receiver/tight end/quarterback and use these deals to adjust linear ranks in terms of each other. I used these inputs to build an empirical model that defines positional value in terms of running back value.